Sunday, October 22, 2023
In bed at 9:30 up at 6:47, 39°, high of 53°, AQI=18, wind NNW at 10, 3-13/20, 0.2" of rain in last 24 hours. Sunrise 7:13 at 104°ESE, 5:58, sunset at 256°WSW. A decent night's sleep, maybe 1 hours on lzb. Had a warm pleasant dream about Steve K, my doppelgänger.
New morning protocol. The first thing I do (usually after taking care of Lilly) is to check the NYT or WaPo to see if the IDF has crossed its land forces into Gaza. I can sense the very real possibility of "a wider regional conflict" in this situation, possibly involving nation-states, Israel of course, but also Syria, Iraq, and the big one - the U.S. and Iran. One carrier strike force I understand, but two? And I can't help wondering whether those two carriers - such big targets - have their own "iron dome" defenses. I wonder what life was like in the waning days of 1939.
LTMW nearing 10 a.m. at a gang of those feisty, pesky English sparrows driving away the finches,l nuthatches, and other birds until a big red-bellied woodpecker swoops in and drives the sparrows away. The chickadees dash in and out so fast they seem not to be bothered by the sparrows.
Treadmill. I got on twice this morning, early, but stopped after only a few steps each time - CPP/BPS. I'll try later.
CPP all afternoon. In bed twice just to be horizontal. also on LZB once, all to relieve pressure on pelvic floor but not knowing whether it's efficacious. I had only one cup of Geri's leftover decaf today, plus a Bengal Spice herbal tea, and some water, trying to deal with BPS but it probably doesn't help with CPP, or does it? Is it all interrelated?
More on Israel, Hamas, Gaza, children. There are more videos coming out of Gaza showing little children in shrouds, others in hospitals or being carried or walked with caring adults, parents, family members, who knows? One image stays with me: a toddler in diapers, appearing full, with his head bandaged, holding the hand and walking next to an adult. The Gaza/Hamas Health agency announces the number of dead and wounded periodically but who is counting? What information can be confidently relied on in any war, including this one? Every night and every morn / Some to Misery are born. Every day and every night / Some are born to sweet delight. / Some are born to sweet delight. / Some are born to endless night.
What choices are realistically available to the Israeli government? What it is doing now - willingly or under US pressure - provides more time for the Gazans to flee from north to south, but to what living circumstances? It also gives the IDF more time to plan, and Hamas more time to stage IEDs, booby traps, fortified emplacements, etc. The delay also gives everyone more time to think, to consider costs, in blood and treasure. It gives Hezbollah more time, too and other militarized organizations. The fecklessness of the UN in these circumstances could hardly be clearer, both in Gaza and in Ukraine. Will there be calls for the US to get out of the UN and to get the UN out of the US? We can probably count on it.
Could Israel opt for so-called 'surgical strikes' within Gaza, foregoing massive infrastructure destruction? Building to building, door to door? I can't imagine the IDF leadership (or the political leadership) agreeing to this.
More worryingly, could Israel opt to use a dirty 'tactical nuke' to level and render utterly uninhabitable Gaza City, force all remaining Palestinians into southern Gaza, thereby shortening the Israel-Gaza border to a more defensible length? This too seems hard to imagine unless Israel faces attacks from all sides, overstressing the IDF's ability to maintain control in the West Bank, and to defend all sectors within Israel. This must be a nightmare situation for Biden, the State Department, and DOD, especially since it would free up Russia to use its tactical nukes in Ukraine. What then?
The U.S. is moving a carrier strike force into the Persian Gulf in addition to the two in the eastern Mediterranean. It seems that our entire national history has been leading up to this point, massive military force surrounding one of the globe's major sources of OIL. Despite all the progress on green energy production, the world still runs on OIL. OIL is still "The Prize" described in Daniel Yergin's great economic history. If it weren't for all the OIL in the neighborhood, why would the Middle East be "a vital national interest"?
As I see this horror unfolding, I think of all my Jewish friends over a lifetime, from Wally Halperin on, and I think of the Muslim students I had at the law school, Ahmed Quereshi and especially Palestinian Othman Atta, who was seemingly universally liked by students and faculty, who was elected president of the Student Bar Association, and who invited us to a reception at his family's home to meet his beautiful wife from the West Bank, a marriage traditionally arranged by the bride's and groom's families. I think of the shared humanity of the Israelis and the Palestinians and wonder what it really counts for.
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